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عنوان فارسی مقاله:

پیش بینی مرگ و میر سالانه ریه و سرطان برونش با استفاده از زمان بقای فردی

عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

Forecasting annual lung and bronchus cancer deaths using individual survival times

سال انتشار : 2016

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بخشی از مقاله انگلیسی:

3. Model

 3.1. Specification In survival analysis, many studies have modeled survival times using an exponential distribution. Since the exponential model defines the survival probability based on a single parameter, it has the advantage of simplicity. However, it has the limitation that survival times sampled from the exponential distribution have a constant hazard rate, which assumes that all subjects are equally likely to die, regardless of how many years they have survived. This is undoubtedly unrealistic in many situations. On the 4 The data from Seattle-Puget Sound were gathered from 1974; the data from Atlanta were gathered from 1975. other hand, the Weibull model can account for hazard rates both increasing and decreasing. The Weibull distribution is shaped by two parameters: the rate parameter (denoted by λ, λ ≥ 0), which is the inverse of the scale parameter; and the shape parameter (denoted by c, c ≥ 0), which provides flexibility in the hazard rate. The probability density function (PDF) and the survival probability of the Weibull distribution with λ and c are given by: f (t|λ, c) = λct c−1 exp  −λt c  (1) S (t|λ, c) = exp  −λt c  . (2) Since the idea that all subjects should show the same survival patterns is an extremely restrictive assumption, we allow for differences in the rate parameter across subjects. When accounting for individual rate parameters, estimates in survival analysis may be spurious if the unobserved heterogeneity is ignored (Lancaster, 1992). On the other hand, if we address survival times using only the unobserved heterogeneity, it is impossible to specify which subjects survive longer, and why. Therefore, the individual rate parameter λi is assumed to be a multiplicative form of two components, λ1i and λ2i , which represent individual covariate effects and unobserved heterogeneity, respectively

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Forecasting Annual Lung and Bronchus Cancer Deaths by Using ... forecastinglab.tistory.com/m/post/71 Translate this page Jul 26, 2016 - Title Forecasting Annual Lung and Bronchus Cancer Deaths by Using Individual Survival Times Authors Duk Bin Jun, Kyunghoon Kim, Myoung ... Forecasting annual lung and bronchus cancer deaths using ... - EconBiz https://www.econbiz.de/.../forecasting-annual-lung-and-bronchus-cancer-deaths.../100... Forecasting annual lung and bronchus cancer deaths using individual survival times. Duk Bin Jun, Kyunghoon Kim, Myoung Hwan Park ... Forecasting annual lung and bronchus cancer deaths using individual ... koasas.kaist.ac.kr/handle/10203/207745 by DB Jun - ‎2016 - ‎Related articles Accurate forecasts of the numbers of cancer deaths are critical not only for allocating government health and welfare budgets, but also for providing guidance to ... Survival Analysis of Lung and Bronchus Cancer Patients Segmented ... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2527780 by DB Jun - ‎2014 - ‎Related articles Nov 20, 2014 - Survival Analysis of Lung and Bronchus Cancer Patients Segmented ... better performance in forecasting the annual number of cancer deaths ... Forecasting Individual Survival Times for Cancer Patients by Duk Bin ... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2360855 by DB Jun - ‎2013 - ‎Related articles Nov 29, 2013 - This study suggests a model to forecast individual survival times with ... We used a lung and bronchus cancer which is a primary cancer in the United ... at each year so that we can derive annual deaths caused of the cancer. Cancer Mortality and Morbidity Patterns in the U.S. Population: An ... https://books.google.com/books?isbn=0387781935 K.G. Manton, ‎Igor Akushevich, ‎Julia Kravchenko - 2008 - ‎Medical Population. Forecasting. Effects. of. Smoking. on. Mortality. from. Cancer. and ... lung cancer and heart disease deaths are attributed annually to exposure to ... is associated with an increased risk of cancers of the lung and bronchus, nasal ...