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اشتباهات رایج در استدلال در مورد آینده: سه اشتباه غیر رسمی

عنوان انگلیسی مقاله:

Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies

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2. Common errors in reasoning about the future

 Most professional and academic disciplines, along with the policy and planning efforts they inform, are almost entirely blind to the tremendous changes that lie just a few decades ahead. They assume that the future will be little different than the present – that technological progress may offer some incremental improvements in efficiency and cost, but that no fundamental changes in the nature of our economy or the human condition are likely to occur. The three informal fallacies discussed below, each of which is a manifestation of inherent shortcomings in human intuitions about complex dynamic systems, may offer at least a partial explanation for this technology blindness. The linear projection fallacy is the error of presuming that future change will be a simple and steady extension of past trends. I am so far unable to find any detailed discussion of this fallacy in the academic literature, but the term is used by Michael Kruse in a 2007 essay about economic forecasting (Kruse, 2007). The linear projection fallacy presumes both that 1) the present rate of change will continue into the indefinite future, and 2) the trend going forward will be characterized by a smooth succession of increments without disruption or discontinuity. Projections of this kind are therefore linear, hence the name of the fallacy. This fallacy is pervasive, and in practical terms it means that most disciplines envision futures in which our world experiences only minor changes at the margins – a few fancier gadgets here, some efficiency gains there. At first glance, it may seem as though linear projections are a conservative and therefore responsible way to forecast future change. But more thoughtful consideration shows that indulging our linear intuitions and simplifying the complex dynamic phenomenon of technological change in this way is reckless and deeply problematic. 2.1.1. Reinforcing feedback One key nonlinear aspect of technological progress is that it is characterized by a reinforcing feedback loop, or what is commonly referred to in the futurism discourse as accelerating returns (Kurzweil, 2000). The exponential growth of computing is perhaps the clearest example of this phenomenon, as discussed above, but the same reinforcing feedback loop applies to technological progress more broadly: each new tool that is developed produces synergies with existing tools and is then used to create still newer and more powerful tools (Drexler, 2013). 2.1.2. Tipping points Tipping points are a second nonlinear aspect of technological progress. Technologies such as the Internet and smartphones emerge and are adopted only once specific thresholds of computing speed, size, and cost are exceeded. As the term suggests, passing a tipping point results in rapid transformation. Today, for example, it is difficult to imagine life without the Internet and smartphones, but that time was only 20 years ago. Two decades from now it will be just as difficult to imagine life without self-driving vehicles and natural language user interfaces. And in the decades beyond, life without swarms of nanobots that safeguard human health and repair ecological damage might be as unimaginable as life without vaccines and electricity is for many of us today

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